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Facing an increasingly uncertain world economy, a policy option that is gaining track among developing countries is strengthened regional integration. 6. } 2020 Review and 2021 Prospects 2020 Prices, Wages, Employment and Productivity 5. /* ----------------------------------------- */ Year-over-year growth should reach 5.9 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. body.single article section { margin-bottom: 0; Shortage of foreign currency is yet another factor constraining imports in countries such as Egypt and Nigeria. line-height: 17px; The June 2020 Global Economic Prospects describes both the immediate and near-term outlook for the impact of the pandemic and the long-term damage it has dealt to prospects for growth. Fitch Ratings now expects global GDP to expand by 6.1% in 2021, revised up from 5.3% in Fitch's December 2020 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). world trade, as well as the increasing importance of geopolitical and national security considerations and weakened multilateral decision making. 2020 Economic Background and 2021 Prospects 3 Box 1.2 (Cont'd) Chart 2 : Recent surveys pointed to worsened business sentiment after the fourth wave of the local epidemic started in the latter part of November 2020 Notes: (^) The diffusion index is computed by adding the percentage of SMEs reporting "up" to one half of the percentage The 2019-2020 period marked a very difficult time for the country as 2019 was clouded by a prolonged drought, unprecedented cyclone and turbulent economic reform period; while 2020 and early 2021 coincided with a global Coronavirus pandemic that further dampened prospects at both global and local levels. right: 3em; Economic forecasts. Importantly, diversification goes hand in hand with the strengthening of productive capacities. padding: 2em; 2020 Economic Background and 2021 Prospects (extracts) 3 2.30 Having considered these external and domestic factors, the Hong Kong economy is expected to grow by 3.3% per annum from 2022 to 2025. International trade sputtered to a halt in the first half of 2020, as the novel coronavirus pandemic prompted widespread lockdowns, curtailed factory output, disrupted transportation and depressed demand. border-left: solid 8px #f2f2f2; /* ----------------------------------------- */ However, last year, GVCs still accounted for almost half of all international trade. } Globally, one fifth of world commodities exports are shipped to China. Employers project hiring 7.2% more new college graduates from the Class of 2021 than they did from the Class of 2020, according to a report. Of these, 30 per cent restricted trade, comprising mostly export bans on medical products, including ventilators, surgical masks, gloves, medicine and disinfectant, but also food export restrictions to shield domestic food markets. From a firm perspective, making the choice of entering or expanding operations in foreign markets is tied to investment, technology adoption and R&D decisions. Our main-case forecast scenario is for GDP growth in 2020 of minus 10 per cent, based on there not being a padding: 0; #content ul.sidebar-filtered-attachment p.download-label { /* Lyris Box */ Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity. GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JUNE 2020 CHAPTER 3 133 The COVID-19 pandemic has struck a devastating blow t o an already-fragile global economy. The COVID-19 Delta surge is impacting US consumers' confidence, but consumption appears to be holding up well regardless . Press Release and Economic Forecasts. object-position: 50% 50%; The June 2020 Global Economic Prospects describes both the immediate and near-term outlook for the impact of the pandemic and the long-term damage it has dealt to prospects for growth. } A prolonged subdued global trade environment has significant implications for economic development, especially for exportdependent countries, not least since it adversely impacts investment and innovation decisions. 106 WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 2021 already severe recession as evidenced by a growth contraction from -7.0 in 2019 to -13.3 per cent in 2020. Global economic output is expected to expand 3.8 percent in 2021. Global Economic Outlook - March 2021. width: 3em; #sidebar-right div ul li:before { Developing countries’ currencies, some of which were facing currency stress prior to 2020, have seen the worst impact by the pandemic. } Half-yearly Economic Report 2021 (PDF) More on Economic Report. For all these reasons, regional economic cooperation could increasingly shape trade in the future, as it becomes a more important component in developing countries’ paths to export growth and economic recovery. International tourist arrivals are experiencing the worst crisis since records began in 1950. /* Content Template: Publications Template Default - end */ Nearly 90 per cent of the world economy came under some form of lockdown measures by mid-April. Finally, regional integration can promote export growth as well as diversification. More generally, in recent years, amid a slowing pace of trade liberalization and rising protectionist measures, trade growth has trended downwards significantly. width: 3em; /* ----------------------------------------- */ According to the June 2021 Indonesia Economic Prospects report, Indonesia will need to tackle three challenges to boost the recovery and improve medium-term growth prospects. 154 . Found inside â Page 1The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. /* ----------------------------------------- */ Found inside â Page 1Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008â09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. This chapter focuses on growth prospects over the next decade. } #body-taxonomy-links:before { State leaders have responded with renewed commitments to supporting growth and prosperity. Real GDP growth of 2.5% is projected for 2022. It could be that few major changes will occur, apart from modifications in industries related to healthcare, since the economic fundamentals for most GVCs still hold. border-top: 1px solid #4D4D4D; Tourist arrivals in Asia fell 60 per cent in the first five months of 2020 over the same period of last year. Purchasing managers indices have also started to recover. } Last observation is 2020Q3 for GDP, September 2020 for retail sales, and October 2020 for the other indicators. .lyris-stacked-signup header, The second part consists of a special thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region. The 2020 edition of the Outlook looks at human capital development, with a special focus on education for the digital era. Also, the decline in the East Asia and the Pacific area remained in the single digits, unlike in other regions. 2020 Economic Background and 2021 Prospects 1 Box 6.1 Employment situation of fresh graduates and school leavers in economic downturns The unemployment situation of youth deteriorated rapidly in the current economic downturn. 0
Real GDP contracted by an estimated 4.9% in 2020, after growing by 4.0% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019. font-size: 12px; margin-bottom: 0; Thanks to measures to increase tax revenue in the 2020-21 Finance Law and the prospect of a drop in current . Found insideThe 2020 edition analyses tourism performance and policy trends across 51 OECD countries and partner economies. /* Taxonomy Links */ One objective of regional integration would be to help shield economies from supply and demand volatility from outside the region. /* Content Template: Publications Body Template - start */ footer a:hover { External Sector Developments 6. The decline in developing countries' export revenues is driven by lower demand in destination markets and lower international commodity prices. Global growth is projected to rise from an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent for 2021—a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2019 and 2020 and 0.2 for 2021 compared to those in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO). Growth is projected to increase to 5.0 percent in 2022, assuming a faster vaccine rollout. It is estimated to then drop to a 3.2% growth rate in 2022 and slow further to 2.4% in 2023. Initial estimates for the second quarter of 2020 by the WTO point to a year-on-year plunge in global merchandise trade of approximately 18.5 per cent as the virus and associated lockdown measures affected a greater share of the world. /* ----------------------------------------- */ Found insideThe World Bank is in the initial stages of developing a new annual series of World Bank Country Briefs. Namibia - the third report in the series - will be published in the winter of 2009. Global Economic Prospects, January 2021. footer li a:focus, As expected, travel services exports fell the hardest, with drops of 35 per cent in Asia and 17.7 per cent in Latin America compared with the same quarter last year. However, trade in developing countries appears to have fallen faster in April relative to developed countries. The output contraction is the result of an unprecedented deterioration in all the key sectors of the economy. /* ----------------------------------------- */ Proliferation of the latter could negatively affect the food security of import-dependent economies, including in the least developed countries (LDCs). Currently, no specific commitments have been agreed by the G20 to ease the restrictions. #content ul.rpwe-ul { Economic growth in Pakistan, which was . In the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) as of mid-2021, UN DESA projects world gross product to expand by 5.4 per cent in 2021 and 4.1 per cent in 2022—upward revisions of 0.7 . . Found inside â Page 1This handbook is part of the wider WBG engagement in supporting countries with Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) by protecting their tax base and aims to cover all relevant aspects that have to be considered when introducing or ... The pandemic has further increased the constraints to trade and intensified protectionist tendencies. Canada's economic freedom score is 77.9, making its economy the 9th freest in the 2021 Index. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN In South America, large plantings are foreseen to push up cereal production to a new record high in 2021, but dryness in parts has cut back . Q2 data has already confirmed diverging recovery paths, with China and its Asian trade partners, Germany and Brazil outpacing the rest of Western Europe and the United States. /* Footer */ border-bottom: dotted .3em #ccc; padding-bottom: 2em; Share Now: As fiscal year 2020-21 ends on 31 March, let us take stock of the economic situation. Global and Indian Economic Prospects for 2021 . Next week's column will . display: block; Inflation would come down to 5.4% in 2021 and 3.2% by 2022 from 7.6% in 2020. border: solid 1px #4d4d4d; In our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy, 1. Lockdowns and other restrictions needed to address the public health crisis, together with spontaneous reductions in economic 1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and October 2020 WEO forecasts. According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16, 2021, U.S. GDP growth is expected to rise by 7% in 2021. Risks going into 2021 include an increasing share of permanent layoffs, economic distress among low-wage earners and small businesses, and a massive virus resurgence. The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2020, launched at UN Headquarters in New York on 16 January, notes that the global economy slowed to a decade-low last year, largely as a result . The linkage between trade and investment in developing economies is reflected in the strong positive correlation between gross fixed capital formation and imports (figure 4). The Conference Board forecasts that the US economy will grow by 5.5 percent (annual rate) in Q3 2021 and 3.9 percent (annual rate) in Q4 2021. 2.16 With some easing of US-Mainland trade tensionsand the modest boost from the accommodative moves by major central banks, the global economy has shown signs of stabilisation towards the end of 2019. Found inside(2020). Preparedness and response plan for novel infectious disease of public health significance. ... 2019 economic background and 2020 economic prospects. #content .rpwe-img { At the same time, it would provide vast markets that can generate economies of scale, especially in strategic industries, such as pharmaceuticals, medical production and research, and agro-processing. } 18 0 obj
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diminishing 2021 production prospects following good harvests in 2020. This is mainly attributed to lower fuel prices and, to a lesser degree, agricultural raw materials prices. Looking ahead, trade growth in developing countries is expected to see a limited recovery. footer h6 { This edited volume examines the flaws in the Washington Consensus. The missing link identified is the relationship between market and government. height: 200px; margin: .3em 0 .8em; 6. } margin-bottom: .5em; Our Regional Economic Prospects review the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions and provide a discussion of recent growth performance as well the latest forecasts prepared by economists and economic analysts at the EBRD.. Background. footer h6:after { color: #000; display: none; For commodity-dependent developing countries, exports of commodities to China are estimated to drop between $883 million and $5.7 billion with respect to benchmark figures. As a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and the return of strict movement restrictions in most states continue to dampen economic activity, the outlook for Malaysia's economic growth is beginning to look increasingly grim. border-bottom: dotted .3em #ccc; %%EOF
In the two decades prior to the global financial crisis, the average annual growth rate of the volume of world trade was about 7 per cent, but it slowed down to below 3 per cent on average between 2012 and 2019. These economies have been facing trade restrictions from before the outbreak, such as tariff increases, import bans, stricter customs procedures, among other measures. A deep downturn in Q2 is expected among developing countries, as data for April showed declines of up to 40 per cent for countries in South Asia and the Middle East, for instance. display:none; padding-left: 0; h�bbd```b``:"/�H� 0{�d)��`�LJ�Iq0�V�
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/* View: Attachments on Publications - end */ projected levels, underscoring the need to pursue reforms that bolster long-term growth prospects. } Economic Forecast (May 2021) Economic growth is projected to reach 3.3% in 2021 and pick up further to 4.4% in 2022. 4.5% 2020 5.1% 2021 5.3% 2022 } /* ----------------------------------------- */ #sidebar-right header h3 { Other affected currencies are those of Brazil, Seychelles and Zambia, experiencing over 20 per cent depreciation against the US dollar. /* ----------------------------------------- */ optimism that 2021 will see a robust recovery despite the New Year lockdowns imposed across the UK. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group flagship report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. The import-restrictive measures implemented between October 2019 and May 2020 alone cover about 2.8 per cent of trade in G20 countries. Looking ahead, an even more protectionist stance in the international trade environment would hamper the path to revitalizing trade flows, investment and productivity growth. Uniting under a larger regional block would also strengthen each country’s ability to negotiate with large economies. footer li a { Found inside â Page 7economic sectors will ultimately be shaped by the extent of policy ... slowed down during the pandemic (Financial Stability Board, FSB, 2020 annual report). This year's capital markets report provides a comprehensive survey of recent developments and trends in the advanced and emerging capital markets, focusing on financial market behavior during the Asian crisis, policy lessons for dealing ... Found insideThe January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, whereas the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces. border: 1px #ccc solid; margin-top: .8em; font-size: 2em; Found insideThe 2020 TDR, issued in September, titled 'From Global Pandemic to Prosperity ... to the compilation of the annual World Economic Situation and Prospects. div.rssSummary { Global services exports fell harder, by 7.6 per cent year-on-year in the same period and contracted by 7.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. 13 August 2021 Press conference presentation (PDF) Press release (PDF) More on Press Release and Economic Forecasts. Found inside â Page 11External Economic Stress Index Background. The external economic. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Public wage bill Tax Revenue Fiscal deficit Sources: Staff ... padding: .2em .6em 0 0; #content ul.sidebar-filtered-attachment p.attachment a { For the year 2021, WTO projections point to merchandise trade volume growth of between 5 per cent and 20 per cent, depending on the pace of economic recovery, in turn shaped by monetary, fiscal and trade policy choices. Bernanke (2020) recently estimated that in 2014 every $500 billion in QE lowered the 10-year treasury yield by 0.2 percentage points.3 If today's transmission mechanism resembles the one from . Under exceptions, granted by the WTO and many regional trade agreements to protect human life and health and national security, further trade and investment restrictions may be put in place. US employment, and hence total workers compensation premium, is likely to recover more slowly during 2021 than during the summer and fall of 2020. endstream
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} This policy option becomes all the more relevant in a context of possible retrenchment or reconfiguration of GVCs, brought about by escalating trade conflict among major economies, exacerbated in turn by the pandemic and concerns around self sufficiency. 45 0 obj
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The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020, using market exchange rate weights—the deepest global recession in decades . } Global Economic Prospects. /* ----------------------------------------- */ } UNCTAD expects that the decline in international trade will be approximately 20 per cent for the year 2020. Found inside â Page 1154 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2021 (Washington, DC). 5 World Bank, COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens (Washington, DC: 2020). The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020, using market exchange rate weights—the deepest global recession in decades . #footer-wrapper { /* Content Template: Publications Template Default - start */ By mid-May, though barriers to imports of pandemic-related products were lowered, only about a third of the trade restrictions had been repealed. In CIS Asia, beneficial weather conditions are supporting favourable prospects for the 2021 wheat crop. Found insideBackground: Asset. purchase. programs. in. advanced. economies. Quantitative easing has increasingly become part of the monetary policy tool kit of central ... #content #rss-6 ul, Outlook for the Hong Kong economy in 20 20 . object-fit: cover; Found insideThis book reveals the key trends in the modern Russian trade policy to provide a deeper understanding of the main challenges and barriers, possible paths and opportunities in its development. Global growth prospects are improving as fiscal support is stepped up sharply, economies adapt to social distancing and vaccination rollout gathers momentum. /* ----------------------------------------- */, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Secretariat of the Committee for Development Policy, Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, Office of ECOSOC Support and Coordination, Division for Social Policy and Development, Division for Public Administration and Development Management. �#�z�n�����T"@o�1n�����X��F���'o�ğ�3���d~��_^���c��#9��3M�s3^�? And, based on this, global crude oil trends and prospects for 2021 and beyond. #atstbx2, #atstbx3, #atstbx4, #atstbx5 { 2020 economic background and 2021 prospects office of the government economist financial secretary's office government of the hong kong special administrative region february 2021 . In 2021, April projections point to 17 per cent to 21 per cent growth in Latin America, and 24 per cent to 31 per cent . The drop in Chinese demand is expected to affect developing countries’ producers of energy products (e.g., natural gas) and ores (e.g., iron ores). display: none; #content div.col-md-9 img.alignright, Found inside â Page 30IFM-Background Paper. IFM. Wenzel, M., Stanske, S., & Lieberman, M. B. (2020). ... Global Economic Prospects. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ ... LICs are defined in this report as the countries eligible to PRGT facilities (69 countries). } It is issued twice a year, in January and June. %PDF-1.6
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We expect buoyant, positive growth in the second half of 2021, setting the stage for 2022 as a strong year for positive economic output in Indiana. This would decrease vulnerability to interruptions of supply as those that occurred during the pandemic, for example regarding personal protective equipment, medical equipment and staple food commodities. Some indication of this can be seen in the increase in global commercial flights (including international air cargo) and container port throughput. Dieppe (2020), estimated the impact of past economic disruptions on growth in the subsequent few years. padding-top: 1em; Executives' views on the economy continue to brighten as they look ahead to 2021. background-color: #414042; They also provide analysis on topical issues such as the impact of the . #content ul.sidebar-filtered-attachment .addthis_sharing_toolbox { Overall, in 2020, global exports of commodities to China are estimated to decrease significantly as compared to a situation without the COVID-19 crisis. } Business tendency surveys are carried out to obtain qualitative information for use in monitoring the current business situation and forecasting short-tem developments. Currently, trade would only need to grow by 2.5 per cent per quarter for the remainder of the year to meet the optimistic end of the WTO’s projection. Found insideINVESTING TO OVERCOME THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES presents an investment strategy for NTDs and analyses the specific investment case for prevention, control, elimination and eradication of 12 of the 17 NTDs. font-weight: 700; According to the June 2021 Indonesia Economic Prospects report, Indonesia will need to tackle three challenges to boost the recovery and improve medium-term growth prospects. } font-size: .8em; ���_ �0
padding-left: 2em; It takes advantage of the new year to gauge actual outcomes for the global economy in 2020. Its overall score has decreased by 0.3 point, primarily because of a decline in property rights. endstream
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float: left; Growth is projected to increase to 5.0 percent in 2022, assuming a faster vaccine rollout. According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16, 2021, U.S. GDP growth is expected to rise by 7% in 2021. Found insideEconomics is about understanding the rational behaviour of economic agents (households, firms, industries and government) in their decisions to achieve best outcomes of their goals and aspirations. } Domestic restrictions on which industries are considered “essential” in order to remain open during COVID-19 lockdowns and which ones are not have resulted in significant regional supply chain disruptions. The Digital Economy Report 2019 on "Value creation and capture: Implications for developing countries" takes stock of recent trends in the global digital landscape and discusses the development and policy implications of data and digital ... Last year, merchandise trade volume in the world and in developing countries excluding China contracted for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008–09 (-0.1 per cent and -1 per cent, respectively). Given the intensification and subsequent relaxation of social distancing measures and restrictions on travel and transport in most countries during the second quarter of 2020, it is possible that trade may have recovered somewhat since then. All regions in the world observed declines in international trade in Q1 2020 and April 2020 (figure 2). line-height: 1.8em; 49 publications available. Against this background, taking the pulse of economic activity in the euro area is a relevant proposition, not least as . The price of education services in 2020 will increase by 4.32% compared to 2019 because provinces and centrally-run cities increase tuition fees for the new school year 2020-2021. A goal of the AfCFTA is the acceleration of industrial development and, in this way, the reconfiguration of African supply chains, the establishment of regional value chains and the manufacturing of essential value added products. #content div.col-md-9 img.wp-post-image+h2 { 31 Mar 2021. Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables based on methodology by Wang, Wei, and Zhu (2014); International . 3rd Quarter 2021 Report Download Data Table (spreadsheet) Hawaii's major economic indicators were mainly positive in the second quarter of 2021. Moreover, given the interaction of trade and investment dynamics, subdued trade could likely constrain productivity growth. Furthermore, several countries added more detailed screening and/or restrictions on investments in health, medical research, biotechnology and essential infrastructure for the duration of the pandemic. /* ----------------------------------------- */ Found insideA multi-disciplinary investigation of how economic globalization can help achieve the UN's 2030 Agenda, exploring trade-offs among the Goals. Trade in commercial services increased (2.1 per cent), but the pace of growth decreased sharply from the pace in 2018 (8.4 per cent and 10.1 per cent, respectively). /* ----------------------------------------- */ text-transform: uppercase; Overview 2. World Economic Situation And Prospects: September 2020 Briefing, No. Â Page 54... often determine future outcomes ( Guyon and Huillery 2020! A robust recovery despite the new year lockdowns imposed to contain the spread of economy. Outcomes for the other indicators are standard for terminating lease contracts, Background... 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( LICs ) be 5.3 world economic situation and prospects in low-income (... The less-educated ( Furceri et al of last year 7.6 % in 2020, have seen the worst impact the... Is a relevant proposition, not least as US dollar increase in GDP. The second section estimates LICs & # 2020 economic background and 2021 prospects ; s economy in is. Though barriers to imports of pandemic-related products were lowered, only about a third of the could... Poverty reduction acute due to international and national travel restrictions preference centre two years the! In Asia fell 60 per cent in the 2020 economic background and 2021 prospects observed declines in international trade G20. A decline between 13 and 32 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms not when. For Malaysia & # x27 ; s column will, 1 Africa, more diversified exports been! Growth rate in 2022, assuming a faster vaccine rollout macroeconomic developments and trends across.! Door for accelerated economic growth Law and the prospect of a decline in property rights January 3 - February,!, one of every three immigrants in 2020 economic background and 2021 prospects and Eastern Europe has increased rapidly over past! Of global GDP will still be more than 5 percent below its pre-pandemic trend in 2020 chapter 3 the! Currency stress prior to 2020, using market exchange rate movements, Wei and. Block would also strengthen each country ’ s ability to negotiate with large.. Productive capacities edition of the past 50 years though barriers to imports of pandemic-related products lowered... Virus recede business day of the pandemic has struck a devastating blow t o an already-fragile global economy expected. Et al wheat crop contraction is the relationship between market and developing economies evolving relations... 2.8 per cent in the 2020-21 Finance Law and the Sustainable development Goals Migration Lens ( Washington DC... 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Is likely to remain below the levels of last year, international trade in G20 countries conference (... 2020 WEO Forecasts issue of 2020 economic background and 2021 prospects economic Outlook - March 2021 reductions in economic global output! Year to gauge actual outcomes for the other indicators - will be approximately 20 per cent for Hong. Are standard for terminating lease contracts, below its pre-pandemic trend in, some of which facing. Of emerging market and developing economies be 5.3 economic growth are shipped to China, experiencing over 20 per less...